The Xi Jinping Administration’s National Vision for China Through the Implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan: Is the Pursuit of Great-Power Status Feasible and What Are the Challenges?

At the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (below, “Party Congress”) in 2017, General Secretary Xi Jinping announced a long-term national strategy aimed at making China the world’s leading power in terms of composite national strength and international influence by 2049, the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. With this goal at the fore, subsequent Five-Year Plans, which are regarded as China’s most important mediumterm plans, have set out policies and goals for economic and social management to be accomplished at the end of their respective periods.

Under the Xi Jinping administration, three Five-Year Plans have been formulated: the 13th (2016–2020), the 14th (2021–2025), and the latest, the 15th (2026–2030). Looking toward the goals for 2035 and 2049, the 15th Five-Year Plan follows the roadmap laid out in the 14th Five-Year Plan, while raising the target levels that need to be achieved. Conceptually, the 15-year period from 2021 to 2035 has been divided into three Five-Year Plans, each of which is (or will be) designed for the realization of intermediate targets on the way to becoming a great power in three stages, and the role of the 15th Five-Year Plan is to link the 14th and 16th plans.

While the 15th Five-Year Plan aims to lift the nation to great-power status across various domains, the Xi Jinping administration has made becoming a manufacturing powerhouse the top priority. Indeed, among the approximately 100 priority projects listed in the plan, those related to the development of “new quality productive forces,” such as upgrading manufacturing with AI and developing high-end new materials such as high-quality high-temperature alloys and advanced polymer materials, account for the largest share on the list, with 28 projects. To become a manufacturing powerhouse, China is also accelerating efforts to strengthen its scientific and technological capabilities. Regarding the expansion of domestic demand and the strengthening of macroeconomic governance, two key priorities stand out: boosting consumer confidence and improving quality in connection with labor productivity.

On the political front, the plan includes policies to strictly enforce leadership by the Chinese Communist Party (below, “CCP”) and to remove local officials who fail to act on directives. On the diplomatic side, it calls for a shift toward “major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics,” emphasizing proactive expansion of international influence and China’s role as a major power in the international community. Furthermore, it states that China is attempting to advance a transition toward environmentally conscious lifestyles to support sustainable development, even if this temporarily slows the country’s pursuit of great-power status.

Overall, implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to proceed according to schedule, but variation in degrees of progress across different fields are likely to emerge. In areas such as becoming a manufacturing powerhouse, enforcing CCP leadership, and expanding international influence, progress will likely be smooth for the most part. However, progress in certain areas, such as domestic demand expansion, education, and environmental initiatives, may fall behind. Regarding domestic demand expansion, in particular, because the policy is to emphasize fiscal discipline and the supply side, consumer confidence may not improve to the desired extent, and the imbalance between supply and demand could even widen.

The 16th Five-Year Plan, which will follow, is expected to serve as the final stage in achieving the 2035 goal of becoming a great power. It will likely focus on pushing on further toward targets in areas where smooth progress was seen under the 15th Five-Year Plan, with targets in areas where progress fell short being reviewed. Three areas will probably be prioritized: industrial policy, improving consumer confidence, and human resource development. While the CPC and the Chinese government possess strong capabilities in executing policies where planning is possible through top-down resource allocation, they have long struggled with demand-side policies, and will likely continue to face difficulties in altering the country’s economic growth model, which lacks balance.

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