Can Regional Migration Policy Achieve Long-Term Settlement? — Evidence from Australia’s Regional Visa System: 70% Retention Rate and the Roles of Institutions, Space, and Entry-Stage Design —

In Japan, labour shortages and regional demographic decline have recently intensified, particularly in regional areas, creating substantial scope for institutional measures that support the regional settlement of migrants (including foreign workers). While foreign workers and migrants are currently concentrated in metropolitan areas, this does not mean that settlement in regional areas is inherently unfeasible. Rather, successful settlement outcomes depend on how residency pathways are combined with employment opportunities and living conditions. In Australia, regional visa programs have been introduced with the explicit objective of promoting settlement outside major cities. These programs provide clearly defined institutional pathways from provisional residence to permanent residency and, ultimately, citizenship. Regional visas have become a core component of Australia’s skilled migration system, with the prospect of transition from regional residency to permanent status functioning as a powerful incentive for migrants to remain in regional areas. The prospect of transition not only to permanent residency but also to citizenship can further strengthen incentives for long-term regional settlement.

Regional visas have also proven effective at retaining residents in non-metropolitan areas. Approximately 70 per cent of migrants who obtain permanent residency via regional visas remain in non-metropolitan areas after achieving permanent residence status. Moreover, around 80 per cent of regional visa holders apply onshore, with many already residing in nonmetropolitan areas prior to obtaining a regional visa. This pattern underscores the importance of entry-stage policies, including international student pathways.

However, settlement outcomes are shaped not only by visa design but also by living conditions. In Australia, population concentration in major metropolitan areas persists despite the introduction of regional visas, suggesting that such programs do not automatically guarantee long-term settlement. Regions that offer employment opportunities, housing, access to education and healthcare, and conditions conducive to family settlement are more likely to retain foreign residents over the long term.

For Japan to promote regional settlement of migrants (including foreign workers), three pillars must be designed in an integrated manner. First, residency pathways that provide a clear prospect of transitioning from regional residence to permanent status should be institutionalised, with the central government retaining overall planning and assessment authority while local governments recommend candidates through a decentralised structure. Second, regional hub cities and their surrounding areas—where employment opportunities and living conditions are relatively well-developed—should be considered as focal points for settlement. Third, entry-stage design should link new inflows, particularly international students, to regional areas by embedding regional study and initial employment opportunities from the outset, thereby connecting education, work, and settlement at an early stage.

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