ASEAN is reluctant to join the U.S.-led decoupling/de-risking strategy for China
―The IPEF is not working, and Japan may be the key to promote friend-shoring ―

The U.S. has positioned major ASEAN countries as key partners for friend-shoring, a process of restructuring supply chains around friendly countries. It has included them in the IPEF, a new framework for economic cooperation. However, ASEAN countries have shown little interest in such moves, and the U.S. strategy may not be working.

ASEAN countries generally wish to remain neutral in their relations with the U.S. and China. The reasons behind this are as follows: 1) ASEAN's attitude to security, such as interest in the Taiwan contingency, differs from that of the U.S., 2) the strategy put forth by the U.S., which includes the IPEF, offers no benefits for ASEAN, and 3) ASEAN's economic dependence on China is quite high, so shunning China would not be easy.

To push forward with friend-shoring, the U.S. may need the cooperation of Japan, which has a relationship of trust with ASEAN countries. The Japanese government may promote policies such as 1) leading discussions on the evolution of an economic zone based on the TPP, 2) expanding government support for Japanese companies entering ASEAN, and 3) focusing on support for new industries that ASEAN countries are seeking.

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