Why Women Move to Tokyo? -The Effectiveness of Measures to Promote Women's Activities to Deter Regional Outflow is Limited

Since 2009, the number of women moving into the Tokyo metropolitan area has been higher than that of men. This trend has not changed even in the situation where net migration into the Tokyo area has sharply decreased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The "Comprehensive Strategy for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy in Japan (Regional Revitalization Comprehensive Strategy)" recognizes the outflow of women from rural areas as a major problem, and has been trying to retain women in each region through measures such as the promotion of women's participation in society, but it has not been effective. Therefore, this report provides an overview of the regional characteristics surrounding women based on the two axes of "awareness of work" and "index of women’s activity" found by principal component analysis of data by prefecture.

 "Awareness of work" was roughly divided into "career orientation" and "stability orientation" according to "wage level," "population ratio of university graduates," "length of service," and "ratio of government employees." Large cities, such as Tokyo, have high wage levels and a high ratio of university graduates in the population. More rural prefectures have a high ratio of government employees and long years of service.

 The Women's Activity Index was evaluated based on factors such as the ratio of single-mother households, the ratio of regular employment, the labor force participation rate, the existence of childcare centers, and the ratio of three-generation households living together. In addition to Tokyo, three Hokuriku prefectures (Toyama , Ishikawa, Fukui) were suggested as having fewer restrictions on women's external activities. The three prefectures of Hokuriku, which are often ranked high in terms of livability, have low wage levels and are by no means career-oriented, but the constraints on women's external activities are small, and many women tend to work in the same workplace for a long time.

 Looking at the relationship between the two evaluation axes obtained by principal component analysis and the rate of migration in each region, the correlation between "Awareness of work" and the rate of migration of women in each region is high. The population movement of women is drawn to regions with high career orientations, and on the contrary, it flows out from regions with high indicators of stability orientations.

 On the other hand, the indices that influence the Women's Activity Index have a relatively small impact on population movements. As one of the pillars of the Regional Revitalization Comprehensive Strategy, measures to promote women's activities in the local community are being taken in each region to encourage women to take root in the local community. Such measures will enhance the livability of the areas for women who have taken root, but will have a limited effect in deterring the outflow of women. Quality employment is the only way to take advantage of the small constraints on women's activities.

 The main reason for the increasing number of women moving into the Tokyo area is thought to be the rise in the career orientations of women as they become more highly educated. 51% of women attend four-year universities, a rate that continues to rise and may soon reach the same level as that of men, which is flat at around 55%. In recent years, competition for highly skilled human resources in the IT field has emerged, particularly among large companies based in Tokyo and other areas. The overheating of the highly skilled human resources market has spread not only to men but also to women, and even during the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of women in full-time employment in large cities has remained steady.

 The ability of the Tokyo metropolitan area to attract women, which offers many high-wage employment opportunities for university graduates, is expected to increase further in the future, helped by the few restrictions on women's activities in Tokyo Prefecture.　In order to control the outflow of population from rural areas, it is essential to implement a regional industrial strategy that creates employment opportunities for women with appropriate knowledge and skills to be treated as highly skilled human resources, in line with the era in which university graduates now account for more than half of the young generation and the industrial structure is about to change drastically.

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